Industry Growth

A hundred extra job postings buy exactly one point of reduced competition

Postings contribute 0.03 points each and competition costs 3 points per point, so 100 postings and one point less competition are worth the same 3 points. That gives you a real exchange rate: a sector advertising a hundred more roles is only as attractive as the same sector with competition one notch lower.

How it works

• Combines sector growth, the volume of job postings and the level of competition into one outlook score.
• Weights growth at 4 points per point, competition at 3 points per point, and postings at 0.03 each.
• Produces a score out of 100, reached only at maximum growth, 1,000 postings and zero competition.

score = growth × 10 × 0.4  +  (postings ÷ 10) × 0.3  +  ((10 − competition) ÷ 10) × 30
which simplifies to  growth × 4  +  postings × 0.03  +  (10 − competition) × 3

Worked example

Sector growth 5, 500 job postings, competition 5.

1. growth: 5 × 4 = 20
2. postings: 500 × 0.03 = 15
3. competition: (10 − 5) × 3 = 15
4. score = 20 + 15 + 15 = 50
5. one point of growth adds 4; one point less competition adds 3; 100 postings add 3

Fifty out of a hundred, split evenly between the three inputs. Growth is the most valuable single point, but postings are the only input you can actually count.

Reading the result

• Growth carries the largest weight at 4 points per point, which means it dominates the score even though it is the input you can verify the least. A sector growth rating is a forecast, and forecasts about industries are wrong often enough to deserve a wide margin.
• Postings are the one honest number available here, because you can count them on a job board this afternoon. They are also the input with the smallest coefficient, so a striking difference in advertised volume moves the score less than a guess about growth does.
• Job postings measure advertising, not hiring. Roles get posted for pipeline-building, for compliance, and after being filled internally, so a high count can overstate real demand — and quiet hiring through referrals understates it.
• The score compares sectors against each other and says nothing about your chances in any of them. A booming industry with a skills mismatch is worse for an individual than a flat one where they fit precisely.

Common questions

How many postings equal a point of growth?

About 133. Growth adds 4 points per point and postings add 0.03 each, so 4 ÷ 0.03 gives roughly 133 postings to match a single point of sector growth.

What does a score of 100 require?

Growth rated 10, a thousand postings and competition at zero, all at once. That combination does not occur in practice, so treat the scale as relative — useful for ranking sectors you are weighing up, not as a percentage of anything.