Skills Gap

Closing a three-point skills gap costs five months, not four and a half

The model advances two thirds of a point per month, so a gap of 3 needs 4.5 months of progress — and rounds up to 5. That rounding makes the cost per point wobble: a one-point gap costs 2.00 months per point, a two-point gap 1.50, a three-point gap 1.67. The smallest gaps are the worst value.

How it works

• Subtracts your current level from the level a target role requires.
• Converts that gap into months at a fixed rate of two thirds of a point per month.
• Rounds up to whole months, since a partly closed gap is not a closed one.

gap = required level − current level
months = ⌈gap ÷ (2 ÷ 3)⌉  =  ⌈gap × 1.5⌉
if gap ≤ 0, no months are needed

Worked example

A role requiring level 9 against a current level of 6.

1. gap = 9 − 6 = 3
2. months = ⌈3 × 1.5⌉ = ⌈4.5⌉ = 5
3. gap 1 → 2 months (2.00 per point)
4. gap 2 → 3 months (1.50 per point)
5. gap 4 → 6 months, gap 5 → 8 months, gap 6 → 9 months

Five months to move from 6 to 9. The rounding means a gap of 1 and a gap of 2 cost 2 and 3 months, so the first point you close is the most expensive one you will pay for.

Reading the result

• The fixed rate is the model's big assumption, and it is the one least likely to hold. Skill acquisition is usually fast at the start and slow near the top: moving from 3 to 6 is not the same work as moving from 7 to 10, though this treats them identically at 4.5 months each.
• Self-rated levels are the weakest input here. People new to a subject routinely overrate themselves, and experienced people underrate themselves, so a gap of 3 may really be a gap of 6 or of 1. Anchoring each level to something observable — a task you can do unaided, a review you passed — is worth more than the arithmetic.
• A gap of zero returns zero months, which is worth reading as what it is: the model has nothing to say about whether you would get the job. Skills are one input among interviews, timing, references and luck.
• Treat the output as a planning horizon rather than a deadline. Its value is telling you whether a target is a few months away or most of a year, which changes what you do this week.

Common questions

Why does a one-point gap take two months?

Because 1 × 1.5 is 1.5 months and the result rounds up to whole months. The rounding is deliberate — half a month of progress does not close a gap — but it does mean small gaps look disproportionately expensive per point.

Can I close a gap faster than the model says?

Often, especially at the lower levels or with daily use of the skill at work. The two-thirds-per-month rate is a flat average across a range where real progress is not flat. Use it to compare targets against each other, not as a promise about any one of them.